What PredictedPoly is, who it's for, and how it fits into your Polymarket workflow.

What is PredictedPoly?

Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets in the world — billions of dollars in volume flow through markets on politics, crypto, geopolitics, and culture. The crowd often prices these markets efficiently. But not always.

PredictedPoly is an AI that finds when the crowd is wrong. By combining historical market data, live news sentiment, whale wallet tracking, and base-rate calibration, we generate independent probability estimates for the most popular Polymarket bets — then surface the gaps.

Who is this for?

How to read a PredictedPoly prediction card in under 2 minutes.

The full pipeline — from raw Polymarket data to a published prediction with an edge score.

// PredictedPoly AI Pipeline

1. DATA INGESTION
   Polymarket API → live odds, volume, order book depth
   Refresh: every 15 minutes across all active markets

2. SIGNAL EXTRACTION
   → Historical resolution patterns (50,000+ outcomes)
   → News sentiment velocity (7-day rolling window)
   → Whale wallet positioning delta
   → Volume anomaly detection

3. BASE RATE CALIBRATION
   Historical accuracy = f(category, time_horizon, vol)
   Crowd bias correction applied per market type

4. PROBABILITY GENERATION
   AI_probability = weighted_ensemble(signals)

5. EDGE DETECTION
   edge = AI_probability - market_probability
   if |edge| >= 0.08 → flag as opportunity

6. PUBLISH
   Top-volume markets updated every 15 min

Update Frequency

The math, the biases we correct for, and how we validate the model.

Systematic Biases We Correct For

Probability Formula

Validation

We backtest against 50,000+ resolved Polymarket outcomes, evaluated on:

• Calibration — when we say 70%, it should resolve YES ~70% of the time
• Edge accuracy — flagged picks should outperform market odds in aggregate
• Brier Score — overall probabilistic accuracy vs. raw market odds

The 7 input streams feeding the AI model, with weights that vary by market category.

Weights by Category

CRYPTO       S2: 30% · S3: 25% · S5: 20% · S1: 20% · S4: 5%
POLITICS     S1: 35% · S6: 25% · S7: 20% · S2: 10% · S4: 10%
GEOPOLITICS  S2: 35% · S6: 25% · S1: 20% · S7: 15% · S4: 5%
CULTURE      S4: 30% · S2: 30% · S1: 25% · S6: 15%

Every prediction has a 0–100 confidence score reflecting signal agreement, not outcome probability.

How PredictedPoly identifies mispricings — and what to do with them.

Four primary categories, each with a tailored AI model configuration.

Crypto

Price targets, ETF approvals, protocol launches. Fast-moving — whale wallets and volume anomalies dominate the signal mix.

Examples: Bitcoin $100k EOY, ETH ETF approval, BTC price by end of month.

Politics

Elections, nominations, policy decisions. Deep historical data, driven by polling and structural indicators. Base rates matter most.

Examples: 2028 Democratic nominee, Senate majority control, Trump approval rating.

Geopolitics

Conflict escalation, ceasefires, regime changes. Hardest to price — information moves fast, markets are often slow to update.

Examples: US-Iran ceasefire, Iranian regime fall, NATO Article 5 invocation.

Culture

Awards, box office, sports outcomes. Social sentiment and media coverage velocity are key. These markets over-rely on public narrative.

Examples: Oscar Best Picture, Super Bowl winner, album chart position.

A full anatomy of a PredictedPoly prediction card.

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ [Category]                      [Volume]    │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Market Title / Question                      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ — POLYMARKET ODDS                            │
│ Outcome A  ████████████░░░░  79%            │
│ Outcome B  ████░░░░░░░░░░░░  18%            │
│                                              │
│ — AI PREDICTED                               │
│ Outcome A  █████████░░░░░░░  61%  ← lower   │
│ Outcome B  ███████░░░░░░░░░  34%  ← higher  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ [AI Reasoning ▾]                             │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 🎯 Undervalued Pick      Outcome B +16pp    │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘

When and how predictions are refreshed — scheduled cadence plus event-driven triggers.

Key terms used throughout PredictedPoly.

Common questions about PredictedPoly.

Is this financial advice?

No. PredictedPoly is an informational tool. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, or betting advice.

How accurate is the AI?

On backtested data, our model improves over raw Polymarket odds by approximately +0.018 Brier Score. Polymarket is one of the most efficient prediction markets in the world. Expect to be wrong often even when the edge is real.

Why are some markets not covered?

We prioritize markets by volume and data availability. Currently we cover approximately the top 50 markets by volume.

Can I get probabilities via API?

Not yet. A public API is on the roadmap for Q3 2026. Follow @PredictedPoly for updates.

How do I report a wrong prediction?

DM @PredictedPoly on X/Twitter after the market resolves.

Please read before using PredictedPoly predictions in any financial decisions.

No Financial Advice

Nothing on predictedpoly.one constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice.

AI Limitations

Our AI model has known limitations: data lag, model bias, inability to process private information, sensitivity to outlier events, and systematic blind spots. Predictions can and will be wrong.

No Affiliation with Polymarket

PredictedPoly is an independent analysis service, not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket. We use Polymarket's public market data to generate analysis.

Betting Risk

Prediction market trading involves financial risk. You may lose money. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Regulatory Notice

Prediction market betting may not be legal in your jurisdiction. It is your responsibility to ensure compliance with local laws.