Polymarket Intelligence Layer

Stop Guessing.
Start Predicting.

Most people bet on Polymarket using emotions.
We use data. AI analyzes historical markets, news sentiment, whale activity — then generates probability-backed predictions.

View Predictions How It Works @PredictedPoly
BTC $100k by EOY51% ↑ Oscars: One Battle79% → Iran Ceasefire Mar61% ↑ Iranian Regime Fall54% → Dem Nominee 2028: Newsom25% → Anthropic raises $9B89% ↑ BTC Hit $72k March60% ↑ S&P 500 Up Today73% ↑ NVIDIA $1T+99% ↑ US Invades Iran 202719% ↓ BTC $100k by EOY51% ↑ Oscars: One Battle79% → Iran Ceasefire Mar61% ↑ Iranian Regime Fall54% → Dem Nominee 2028: Newsom25% → Anthropic raises $9B89% ↑ BTC Hit $72k March60% ↑ S&P 500 Up Today73% ↑ NVIDIA $1T+99% ↑ US Invades Iran 202719% ↓
$529M
Top Market Volume
94%
Market Accuracy
1,315
Active Markets
$48M+
24h Volume

AI Predictions

Live
Last updated: March 15, 2026 — 12:00:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket
Culture Vol: $2.1M
Oscars 2026 — Best Picture Winner
— Polymarket Odds
One Battle After Another
79%
Sinners
18%
Hamnet
2%
— AI Predicted
One Battle After Another
61%
Sinners
34%
Hamnet
3%
→Oscar momentum historically shifts late in the season — late-surge narratives tend to be underpriced by bettors
→Sinners gaining +12% in film media coverage over last 7 days; social sentiment overtaking the market leader
→Betting volume spike (+340%) on alternative picks suggests whale repositioning
→AI confidence: Medium-High — market likely overpricing the favorite by ~18pp
🎯 Undervalued AI PickSinners +16pp edge
Crypto Vol: $43.3M
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in March 2026?
— Polymarket Odds
↑ $70,000
76%
↑ $72,000
60%
↑ $80,000
11%
— AI Predicted
↑ $70,000
82%
↑ $72,000
55%
↑ $80,000
8%
→BTC forming rising floor between $64k–$70k — each drawdown recovering to higher lows
→Spot BTC ETF inflows +$1.16B YTD continue to provide structural demand floor
→Resistance zone at $73k–$74k remains untested; breakout requires macro catalyst
→AI confidence: High — $70k touch well-supported, $80k requires ceasefire-driven risk-on rotation
✅ Market Aligned$70k — Strong Buy
Crypto Vol: $5M+
Will Bitcoin Hit $100,000 by End of 2026?
— Polymarket Odds
YES — hits $100k
51%
NO — stays below
49%
— AI Predicted
YES — hits $100k
44%
NO — stays below
56%
→BTC needs +36% from current ~$73k levels — historically achievable but requires sustained macro tailwinds
→Iran geopolitical risk remains elevated; conflict resolution timeline uncertain through Q2
→Fed rate cut expectations for H2 2026 provide bullish backdrop if inflation cooperates
→AI confidence: Medium — market may be slightly over-optimistic; AI sees this as coin-flip leaning NO
⚠️ Market Overpricing YESNO has +7pp AI edge
Geopolitics Vol: $23M+
US–Iran Ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
— Polymarket Odds
YES — ceasefire
61%
NO — conflict continues
39%
— AI Predicted
YES — ceasefire
48%
NO — conflict continues
52%
→Iran Parliament Speaker publicly stated no ceasefire interest; hardline signals point to continued conflict
→Trump stated conflict is "just the beginning" despite mixed signals — high uncertainty regime
→Historical pattern: Middle East conflict de-escalation takes 6–12 weeks minimum after active strikes
→AI confidence: Market Overconfident — AI assigns 13pp lower probability to March resolution
⚠️ Market Too OptimisticNO has +13pp AI edge
Geopolitics Vol: $45M+
Will Iranian Regime Fall by June 30, 2026?
— Polymarket Odds
YES — regime falls
54%
NO — survives
46%
— AI Predicted
YES — regime falls
38%
NO — survives
62%
→Khamenei death confirmed — successor market most likely outcome; 30% chance structure abolishes entirely
→Historical precedent: no modern Middle Eastern theocracy has collapsed under external military pressure alone
→IRGC institutional power intact; succession transition more likely than full collapse within 3.5 months
→AI confidence: High — Market Overpriced; AI gives 16pp discount to YES
⚠️ Market Overpriced YESNO at 62% AI implied
Politics Vol: $2.2B+
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
— Polymarket Odds
Gavin Newsom
25%
Other Candidate
75%
— AI Predicted
Gavin Newsom
22%
Other Candidate
78%
→Newsom leading but market highly fragmented — 2 years is long runway for new entrants to emerge
→Historical base rate: frontrunner at this stage (2.5 years out) wins the nomination only ~40% of the time
→Dem party dynamics still reshaping post-2024 loss; fresh faces carry structural advantage
→AI confidence: Medium — slight Newsom overpricing; market essentially aligned with AI
📊 Broadly AlignedSlight Newsom discount

// AI Methodology

PredictedPoly analyzes Polymarket data using a multi-factor model combining historical market accuracy patterns, news sentiment velocity, whale wallet positioning, late-season momentum shifts, and base-rate calibration. Our AI identifies systematic biases in crowd pricing — particularly overconfidence in frontrunners and underpricing of momentum shifts within 72-hour windows.

Model Confidence Score
78 / 100
Historical Patterns News Sentiment Whale Activity Volume Analysis Base Rate Calibration Momentum Signals Social Sentiment

Track Record

Verified
Mar 1, 2026✓ Correct
Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader by March 31?
Polymarket: 25–50% range through Jan–Feb. AI flagged elevated YES probability at 65% based on escalation trajectory analysis. Market resolved to 100% YES when Iranian state TV confirmed his death.
AI called: YES at 65% → Resolved YES (+$757k top trader)
Mar 2, 2026✓ Correct
S&P 500 Up or Down — March 2
AI model detected strong institutional buy signals pre-open despite Iran headlines. Predicted UP against market consensus leaning DOWN. Market resolved UP with $774.5K in volume.
AI called: UP at 62% → Resolved UP ✓
Feb 28, 2026✓ Correct
US Strikes Iran by February 28
When market sat at 55%, AI elevated to 74% based on troop positioning, drone deployment signals in news, and historical strike-window analysis. Resolved YES. $89.6M in volume on this single date contract.
AI called: YES at 74% → Resolved YES ✓

How It Works

Methodology
01
Data Ingestion
We pull live Polymarket odds, trading volume, whale wallet positions, and order book depth across all active markets every 15 minutes.
02
News Sentiment
AI scans thousands of news sources, social media signals, and expert commentary to detect momentum shifts not yet priced into markets.
03
Base Rate Model
Historical resolution data from 50,000+ Polymarket outcomes calibrates crowd-sourced odds against proven statistical base rates.
04
Edge Detection
AI identifies markets where crowd probability deviates from our model by 8% or more — these are highlighted as AI edge opportunities.

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